Betting on rookie pitchers
It’s seems like at the start of just about every MLB season there is a lot of hype surrounding rookie pitchers who will be making their major league debut. And while in the first couple of months of the season a few will make it to the bigs on a permanent basis, others will soon find themselves back on the bus to the minor leagues.
For baseball handicappers, these young pitchers can create interesting betting opportunities. But if they are not careful, then it can be very easy to make mistakes that can prove to be costly.
So, here are a few errors for bettors to avoid, and one tip to follow, when betting on games featuring rookie pitchers.
One is not to buy into the hype that often surrounds young and upcoming MLB pitching phenoms.
Every season there seems to be a couple of media sweethearts, who sportscasters will spend endless hours analyzing and fawning over. While a few of these players will go on to reach their potential and do well in the majors, many more will never make it past the month of May and a second start. If bettors get caught up in the hysteria, it could prove costly.
Second, handicappers need not put too much emphasis on a rookie pitcher’s spring training performance.
Spring training is even more meaningless than basing a bet on Triple-A performance for a pitcher, as the opposing lineups are not always going to be the best a team has. And even if it is, hitters aren’t going to be at their best so early after a long winter off.
With that, handicappers need not get to excited about a young pitchers first trip to the big league mound either, as many times they get off to a hot start, until teams see them for the second time. By then hitters have reviewed tape and aren’t going to get caught off guard. When it comes to forming an opinion about a young pitcher, it is important for handicappers to be patient.
That’s because even though a rookie pitcher may have pitched consistently good in Triple-A, the leap from the minors to the major leagues is a big one. The hitters are significantly better, and the pressure of playing in front of big crowds can be terrifying.
Finally, if baseball handicappers are convinced that a particular rookie pitcher is the real deal, then they should wager wisely. Betting too heavily while essentially guessing about how a young pitcher will perform, can be a losing proposition.
However, betting against an overhyped young hurler trying to make his way in the MLB, can be a profitable activity.