Four betting assumptions that will get handicappers in trouble
When wagering on any sport, it is important that bettors make their decisions based on facts and statistics, not on hunches and assumptions. If they do, they will likely find themselves losing more bets than they win.
To help sports handicappers avoid that pitfall whether it’s NFL Betting, baseball, or college sports, we have assembled four assumptions that are often made and often bogus when it comes to betting on sports.
To begin with, handicappers need to never assume the value of a particular player based on the betting public and or media’s perception.
Often times a much larger than reasonable emphasis is placed on big name players and their impact on their teams and the teams ability to win games with or without them. A lot of fans tend to think players can nearly win games single-handedly for their clubs, or can cause a team to lose when they are injured.
The truth is, that the impact of players – or their absence – can often be garish, and those overstatements are often reflected in equally specious odds movement – especially if the affected player is a key position like quarterback or starting pitcher. So before handicappers make any decision they need to look closely at what the impact of the player or the injury really is.
Secondly, sports bettors need to pragmatically evaluate the strength of a team, not just base their opinions on the teams that people always think are good. Like the Yankees and Patriots, who do have their share of bad luck, While casual bettors assume that the Yankees would beat a team like the Marlins, and not look deeper, smart sports handicappers never assume such a thing.
Next, there is a lot of emphasis put on the home team. When the fact of the matter is that some teams just play better away from home. The betting public once again tends to back team’s playing at home more often, therefore leaving great value for handicappers that can recognize teams that thrive on the road.
If a handicapper places a wager bases on home advantage without checking to see if the team is boasting a winning home record, then they might be putting themselves on the wrong side of those games.
Finally, an assumption novice handicappers make, is assuming the outcome of a sporting contest without really looking closely at the matchup itself.
For example, if a good passing team in football is up against a very good secondary, a lot of people will just assume that the defense will dominate and the offense will not be able to move the ball through the air. But an experienced bettor looks deeper, asking if a team’s offense actually needs to pass the ball in order score? How does the aerial attack perform against top pass defenses, etc?
Making assumptions about match-ups can lead to huge losses.
Avoid these and be on the winning side of wagering on sports.
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