Game Details:
Matchup: New Mexico Lobos vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Date & Time: Thursday, December 25, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Line: Minnesota -3.5 | Over/Under: 54.5
Key Storylines
Holiday Bowl Battle
Christmas night delivers a unique college football showdown as the New Mexico Lobos (8-4) head north to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6). Both teams are looking to close their seasons on a high note, and the national spotlight makes this bowl game especially significant for confidence, program progression, and recruiting momentum.
New Mexico Eyeing Breakthrough
The Lobos are enjoying their most successful season since joining the Mountain West Conference. Head coach Danny Gonzales has revitalized a program that has struggled over the past few seasons. Dual-threat quarterback Devin Larsen has led the way, throwing for over 2,500 yards with 24 total touchdowns. Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt is also enjoying a breakout year with 1,100 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
Minnesota’s Up-and-Down Season
Despite a .500 record, the Golden Gophers have remained competitive in the Big Ten under coach P.J. Fleck. Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has shown promise, but inconsistency led to a mid-season shift with walk-on Cole Kramer gaining reps late in the year. Star running back Darius Taylor, a freshman standout with over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, will look to lead the charge against a suspect New Mexico run defense.
Injury Report
New Mexico:
Questionable: WR Caleb Medford (ankle), LB Tavian Combs (concussion protocol)
Minnesota:
Out: QB Athan Kaliakmanis (transfer portal), WR Daniel Jackson (opt-out)
Questionable: LB Cody Lindenberg (hamstring)
Betting Trends
- New Mexico: 7-5 ATS in 2025
- Minnesota: 5-7 ATS in 2025
- The total has gone over in 7 of New Mexico’s 12 games
- The total has gone under in 8 of Minnesota’s 12 games
- Gophers are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 December games
Player Props to Watch
Darius Taylor (Minnesota) – Rushing Yards: 99.5
Facing a New Mexico defense giving up nearly 170 yards per game on the ground, Taylor could see heavy volume and exceed this number.
Devin Larsen (New Mexico) – Passing Yards: 225.5
Larsen will have to throw to keep up, especially if Minnesota controls the tempo. Consider the over here if Medford plays.
Prediction & Best Bets
Spread: Minnesota -3.5 → With opt-outs and QB changes, the Gophers’ offense may sputter, giving the edge to a motivated Lobos team.
Total: Under 54.5 → Minnesota will likely lean on the run and defense. Expect this one to slow down late.
Player Prop: Darius Taylor Over 99.5 rushing yards → High usage expected against a soft defensive front.
This has all the makings of a scrappy bowl game with momentum swings and a few explosive plays. In the end, New Mexico’s stability at quarterback and their hunger to make a statement gives them the edge in an upset.
Final Score Prediction: Lobos 27, Golden Gophers 24
