Guide to betting on football underdogs
Whether betting on the moneyline, or against the spread, there is something exciting about betting on football underdogs. Perhaps its spotting something that the betting public did not see, or maybe just the profits from capitalizing on a big score. Nevertheless, betting on underdogs can be fun but extremely risky.
However, there are some precautions that football handicappers can take to lessen the risks while protecting their bankroll from vanishing.
With that, here are a few factors to consider that make betting on football underdogs a potential winner.
First, are they really underdogs? Or has the media helped to create an unrealistic buzz for the favorite?
It’s not unusual for the media to latch onto a few football teams each season, building up the hype surrounding them and touting them as practically unbeatable. In response, the general betting public reacts by overwhelming backing the favorite on game day, even if the media is dead wrong. Which often times they are.
If savvy handicappers can see through the media smoke and mirrors, they could take advantage of the public’s inflated perception, betting against those overrated favorites and cashing in at the end of the day.
Conversely, if a team loses a few games in a row, the opposite happens, as the betting public isn’t likely to look beyond their recent record when deciding to back them. However, smart handicappers can recognize a team that may have suffered a couple of close disappointing setbacks, yet has shown real improvement in each game.
For example, perhaps a team’s recent loss or two has come on the heels of an injured star player coning back to health, or an adjustment to a new offensive or defensive scheme that might be showing real signs of gaining traction. Or maybe a team has recently made a quarterback change, or has been struggling with turnovers or penalties, but is getting better in those areas.
If a handicapper can spot improvements that the betting public has not, they may be looking at a decent opportunity of betting on a different and better team than the oddmakers and public has given credit.
The next thing handicappers need to be on the lookout for when considering betting on an underdog, is a key injury to a favorite’s player that has gone unnoticed by the general betting public.
While injuries to a team’s star quarterback, stud receiver, or number one running back is national news, injuries to a team’s number one pass rusher or crushing linebacker often goes unnoticed, or with little media attention. Meaning, if handicappers are playing close attention to injuries, they may be able to spot a favorite that is missing an important player that has gone virtually unnoticed , which could pay off when cashing in on their bets at the end of the day.
Finally, the betting public will often overlook any statistical edge an underdog might have against their opponent, only looking at how good the two offenses are, and then perhaps how the defenses stack up.
Smart football handicappers will dig deeper, and will look beyond well publicized by stats like QB ratings, passing touchdowns, or sacks, also looking at yards per attempt average or a positive turnover differential against a favorite high yards against or a negative differential.
These stats translate to success against the spread, and nice spots to find value for handicappers wanting to finish ahead of the public when wagering on a football underdog.