November 30, 2025 | 1:00 PM ET | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN Broadcast: CBS | Weather: 48°F, Partly Cloudy, 5 mph Winds (Indoors – Dome Conditions) Series Record: Colts lead 30-26-1 all-time (57 games played)
The AFC South’s marquee matchup takes center stage as the Indianapolis Colts (8-3) host the Houston Texans (6-5) in a divisional battle with massive playoff implications. Indianapolis enters atop the division after a rollercoaster stretch, including a 7-1 start derailed by losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas City, while Houston rides a three-game winning streak fueled by a rested defense and C.J. Stroud’s return from injury. This afternoon clash at Lucas Oil Stadium – where the Colts boast a perfect 6-0 home record – could define the South’s hierarchy, pitting Jonathan Taylor’s ground dominance against DeMeco Ryans’ stingy unit that ranks second in scoring defense (16.5 PPG allowed).
Team Overviews & 2025 Season Snapshot
Indianapolis Colts (8-3, 1st in AFC South)
The Colts have been a model of efficiency at home, averaging 31.0 PPG while holding opponents to 20.2 PPG in their undefeated Lucas Oil streak. Their offense ranks top-5 in rushing (138.8 YPG), but recent red-zone woes (47% TD rate, league-low) have capped scoring. Defensively, they’re turnover machines (5th in NFL with 18 takeaways), though vulnerabilities against the pass (28th, 245.3 YPG allowed) loom large.
- Passing Game: Daniel Jones has stabilized the QB room, completing 66.2% for 2,456 yards, 18 TDs, and 7 INTs (94.8 rating). Michael Pittman Jr. leads receivers with 68 catches for 912 yards and 6 TDs, while Alec Pierce adds 42 rec., 548 yds., 4 TDs. Josh Downs (35 rec., 412 yds., 3 TDs) thrives in the slot.
- Rushing Attack: Jonathan Taylor powers the league’s best ground game with 1,324 yards (5.1 YPC, 12 TDs on 260 carries), including 120.5 YPG career vs. Houston. Trey Sermon contributes 289 yds., 3.8 YPC, 2 TDs.
- Defense: The unit ranks top-10 in scoring (20.2 PPG allowed) but 23rd overall (345.1 YPG). DeForest Buckner (IR, neck) leaves a void, but Samson Ebukam (8.5 sacks) and Zaire Franklin (112 tackles) anchor the front. Kenny Moore II (3 INTs) leads the secondary.
- Special Teams: Matt Gay is 24/26 on FGs (92.3%), with Rigoberto Sanchez averaging 45.2 yards per punt.
Houston Texans (6-5, 3rd in AFC South)
Houston’s defense has been lights-out lately, allowing just 16.5 PPG (2nd in NFL), but the offense has averaged 22.1 PPG with Stroud sidelined. A Thursday night win over Buffalo (23-19) provided rest, and Stroud’s return (3-1 vs. Colts career) could unlock their attack. The Texans have won three straight in this series, all by nine points or fewer.
- Passing Game: C.J. Stroud returns from concussion protocol, posting 2,847 yards, 18 TDs, 5 INTs (96.2 rating) in 8 starts. Nico Collins leads with 58 rec., 845 yds., 5 TDs; Tank Dell adds 45 rec., 612 yds., 4 TDs. John Metchie III (22 rec., 298 yds., 2 TDs) provides depth.
- Rushing Attack: Joe Mixon anchors with 789 yds. (4.2 YPC, 6 TDs on 188 carries), but the unit has dipped to 104.3 YPG over the last three games. Dameon Pierce adds 312 yds., 3.9 YPC, 2 TDs.
- Defense: Top-2 in scoring (16.5 PPG allowed), with 33 sacks (6th) and 14 INTs. Will Anderson Jr. (10.5 sacks) and Christian Harris (89 tackles) lead the charge; Derek Stingley Jr. (4 INTs) shines in coverage.
- Special Teams: Ka’imi Fairbairn is 27/29 on FGs (93.1%), with Tommy Townsend averaging 47.1 yards per punt.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. vs. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor: Anderson’s 10.5 sacks test Taylor’s 1,324 rushing yards (league-high). Houston ranks 10th against the run (107.6 YPG allowed), but Taylor averages 120.5 YPG career vs. the Texans.
- Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr.: Pittman’s 912 yards face Stingley’s 4 INTs. Indianapolis struggles on play-action (28th efficiency), while Houston ranks 1st defending it.
- Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. Colts LB Zaire Franklin: Stroud’s return (3-1 vs. IND) meets Franklin’s 112 tackles. Houston’s offense has averaged 25 PPG in Stroud’s last three starts.
- Colts DT Samson Ebukam vs. Texans LT Laremy Tunsil: Ebukam’s 8.5 sacks challenge Tunsil’s pass protection (Houston allows 2.1 sacks/game).
Head-to-Head History & Recent Trends
The Colts hold a 30-26-1 edge, but Houston has won three straight (all by nine points or fewer), including a 23-20 escape last October and 29-27 in Week 1 2024. Indianapolis is 6-0 at home (31.0 PPG scored), while Houston is 2-3 on the road but 4-1 in the last five meetings. Recent games trend low-scoring (under in 4 of last 5), with Houston’s defense allowing 16.5 PPG (2nd in NFL).
Injury Report & Game Notes
- Colts: Out – DT DeForest Buckner (IR, neck; expected mid-Dec return); QB Anthony Richardson (out indefinitely, orbital fracture). Questionable – CB Kenny Moore II (shoulder); TE Tyler Warren (ankle); DE Samson Ebukam (hamstring). Probable – QB Daniel Jones (fibula).
- Texans: Questionable – QB C.J. Stroud (concussion, expected to play); DE Will Anderson Jr. (ankle); CB Derek Stingley Jr. (hamstring); WR Nico Collins (knee). Out – None major; full strength on O-line with LT Laremy Tunsil back.
With Stroud’s poise against Indianapolis (3-1 career) and the Colts’ red-zone struggles (47% TD rate), this dome battle promises trench warfare and opportunistic plays. Kickoff from Lucas Oil could echo the tight margins of recent clashes, where execution in the turnover battle (Colts +8 differential, 5th in NFL) often tips the scales.
