Even though it’s still very early on in the NFL season, it’s not uncommon to see bettors already wagering on this year’s NFL season win totals.
And while wagering on NFL win totals can be a very good return for astute bettors looking for long term value, early win totals odds can provide valuable insight into what the betting world is thinking when it comes to the upcoming session.
So, here’s a look at a few ways that these early NFL season win totals can be useful to football bettors.
For starters, early season totals tell handicappers what the books think an NFL team is likely to do with what they think fans are anticipating. That allows smart bettors to get a sense of how a team may perform early in the season, and if they react, they could cash in before the public and books respond.
However, handicappers need to pay attention, because opinions change with a team’s performance, and the difference between early win total postings and later ones can provide bettors with solid info on the significance of those changes.
It’s good for handicappers to jump on those changes, either backing off a team or backing a team accordingly. That’s because the early movement in these lines are generally a result of smart money, not the sports betting public shoe isn’t going to pay a whole lot of attention to these early numbers.
Quick reaction is key here, because as the season progresses it becomes a lot harder to pick out the smart money in season win totals.
Another way early NFL season totals help handicappers is allowing them to effectively wager on a team’s weaknesses.
Sure it’s a bit risky, but betting on the holes a team has can result in a big a payoff if a team picks up a couple of free agents, or their young starters eventually live up to their expectations.
Finally, effective football handicapping is all about a handicapper understanding his or her own opinion, and comparing it to the opinions of the public, the oddmakers and the experienced bettors.
Many times handicappers will tell you that they don’t often make money being right, as much as following those that are right.
In the end, by knowing where the futures odds started, bettors can look at how the public and the books perceive the impact of the different developments that will affect an NFL team during the season. And if a handicapper can determine whether they are overcompensating, or whether they are understating what will happen, makes it makes it easy to find value in early season games.