Matchup: Cubs vs Pirates
Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025 | 6:35 PM ET
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Betting Line: Pirates -1.5 | Over/Under: 8.5
Key Storylines
Wild Card Implications
With the National League Wild Card race heating up, tonight’s clash at PNC Park between the Cubs and Pirates carries massive playoff implications. Both teams enter the matchup within reach of a postseason berth, making every win critical down the stretch.
Cubs’ Inconsistent Rotation
The Cubs’ pitching staff continues to be a question mark. After a shaky outing from the bullpen last week, manager Craig Counsell is searching for reliable late-game arms. Tonight’s projected starter, Justin Steele, has struggled in September with a 5.74 ERA through his last three starts.
Pirates Building Momentum
Don’t look now, but the Pirates are surging. They’ve won five of their last seven games and appear locked in on both sides of the field. Offensively, rookie sensation Termarr Johnson has brought energy to the lineup, while veteran Ke’Bryan Hayes is rounding into form at the right time.
Injury Report
Cubs:
Out: Seiya Suzuki (hamstring), Julian Merryweather (shoulder)
Questionable: Nico Hoerner (wrist, day-to-day)
Pirates:
Out: Oneil Cruz (ankle – season-ending), Roansy Contreras (elbow)
Questionable: Endy Rodriguez (groin)
Betting Trends
Against the Spread (ATS)
- Cubs: 67-75 ATS this season
- Pirates: 72-71 ATS this season
Over/Under Trends
- The total has gone over in 6 of the Cubs’ last 9 games
- The total has gone under in 8 of the Pirates’ last 12 home games
Player Prop to Watch
Termarr Johnson (Pirates) – Total Bases: 1.5
Johnson has been hot at the plate, collecting multiple hits in four of his last six games. With a struggling Cubs starter on the hill, the over on his total bases prop is worth considering.
Christopher Morel (Cubs) – Home Runs: +500
Morel leads the Cubs in long balls and takes a power approach against righty starters. He’s a high-upside value prop tonight.
Prediction & Best Bets
Spread: Pirates -1.5 → With the Cubs’ pitching in flux and the Pirates’ offense heating up, backing Pittsburgh to win by two or more runs is a solid bet.
Total: Under 8.5 → Despite recent overs for the Cubs, expect a tighter, more playoff-focused game tonight. Take the under in what could be a pitcher’s duel early on.
Player Prop: Termarr Johnson Over 1.5 Total Bases → He’s locked in at the plate and seems likely to stay hot.
In a tightly contested playoff race, expect the Pirates to defend home turf behind timely hitting and late-inning bullpen strength.
Final Score Prediction: Pirates 5, Cubs 3
