2026 Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinal Preview and Picks
A thrilling College Football Playoff semifinal awaits as the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (13-1) take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (12-2) in the 2026 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Ole Miss advanced with a hard-fought 39-34 victory over Georgia on New Year’s Day, while Miami pulled off a stunning 24-14 upset over defending champion Ohio State on New Year’s Eve. The Rebels ride a seven-game win streak, while the Hurricanes have won six straight and are 4-0 against ranked teams this season. Ole Miss holds a 2-1 edge in the all-time series, though the teams haven’t met since 1951.
Coaching note: Ole Miss is navigating staff changes, with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. on the sideline alongside interim head coach Pete Golding.
Latest Odds (via DraftKings)
- Spread: Miami -3.5
- Over/Under: 51.5 points
- Moneyline: Miami -177, Ole Miss +147
Miami Hurricanes Key Players
Senior QB Carson Beck has been efficient, completing 74.4% of his passes for 3,313 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions across 14 games, plus one rushing score. Freshman WR Malachi Toney leads the receiving corps with 94 catches for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns, adding versatility with 21 carries for 102 yards and a score.
Ole Miss Rebels Key Players
Senior QB Trinidad Chambliss provides dual-threat ability, throwing for 3,660 yards and 21 touchdowns (66.4% completion, three INTs) while rushing for 520 yards and eight scores on 128 carries. Sophomore RB Kewan Lacy powers the ground game with 1,464 yards and 23 touchdowns on 295 carries, plus 28 receptions for 173 yards.
Model Projection
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times and has hit 31-19 on top-rated college football money-line picks since 2024, is leaning Over the 51.5-point total. It’s also generating a strong spread pick that cashes in well over 50% of simulations.
This high-powered semifinal matchup promises fireworks between two explosive offenses. For the model’s full picks and which side to back, check SportsLine.
