There are a lot of options when it comes to baseball betting and one the best places for MLB handicappers to find value is by betting on a team’s win totals.
However, if handicappers aren’t careful, they can easily fall into traps that can eliminate all of the value from these types of bets.
In order, to avoid that, we have assembled a few of the biggest mistakes for MLB baseball bettors to avoid when placing wagers on long term prop bets like win totals.
First, handicappers need to avoid being sucked into blindly betting on the pubic favorite.
Oddmakers know and love the way the majority of bettors will bet the over on most cases not matter what, when it comes to the fan-favorite teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies. But smart handicappers know that the sportsbooks will generally place the total higher than common sense would reveal. So, taking the under in these circumstances could be profitable.
Second, baseball bettors need to check there emotions at the door, avoiding all circumstances of being lured into a situation where they might wager on a team’s win total based on their love or sometimes bitter hatred of a rival team. That emotion turns betting on win totals into costly mistakes. What a handicapper feels and thinks about a team or its players can’t be allowed to affect their decisions. They need only wager based solely on value and good information.
Another costly mistake that baseball handicappers need to avoid, is assuming a team’s prior year’s performance and win totals will be repeated.
Often times teams win 80-plus games because they had an extraordinary year, with little or no injuries, or unsustainable hot streaks by certain players. Conversely, a team that might have posted a meager 70 wins in a prior year, may be much better if it suffered through some abnormally bad luck. Bettors need to forget the past and focus on the present, when it comes to betting on MLB team win totals.
Another mistake that bettors make when looking for win total value, is putting too much emphasis on high profile trades and free agent acquisitions.
A loss or gain of a big free agent can cause the betting public to reactive negatively or overly optimistic, but the reality is that one move will rarely have a major impact on any team. That’s why smart baseball bettors need to look closely at a move a team makes, and what it actually means to that team.
Finally, handicappers cannot ignore the strength of a team’s division when betting on team win totals.
That’s because in the MLB, teams play the other teams in their division a lot of times, as many as 72 total games during a regular season. So, it only makes sense that handicappers recognize the strength of the teams in a particular division, disregarding how good a particular team is compared to its league counterparts.
On one hand, teams in a division that have improved significantly could make it much tougher for others to win games, unless the team in question has improved dramatically.
Nevertheless, a team could gain 10 more wins without noteworthy improvements if a couple of formerly powerful teams in the division are likely to have rough years, because of losing multiple impact players to trades, free agency or injury.