Top NFL ATS Pick for Week 11
Green Bay + 1
Current Record: Minnesota 8-1 ATS, Green Bay 5-4 ATS
While the Vikings have been one of the hottest teams in football right now with 5 straight wins, more attention has been shifted to the Packers, who have lost their last three games. Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is currently tied for No. 1 all time with six 200-yard games, while rest of the team is in complete disarray. Their 5 game winning steak wouldn’t tell you this. However, star WR Mike Wallace being held to 2 receptions for a combined 26 yards over his last 3 games. While Stefon Diggs has emerged as the clear WR2. However, he only has 11 receptions for a total of 182 yards and 1 score over the last three games. Essentially, the key to the Vikings success is RB Adrian Peterson. All the Packers have to due to win this game is stop AP, which they’re very capable of doing.
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Green Bay has scored a measly 55 points during its three-game skid and more than half of those points (28) came in the fourth quarter, despite Aaron Rodgers throwing for 702 yards with six touchdowns and one interception in the past two contests. The Packers running game has all but disappeared with starter Eddie Lacy being benched recently and James Starks rushing for a combined 90 yards over the Packers last three game. WR Randall Cobb has been held under 53 yards in five of his last six games, but Davante Adams is assuming a bigger role with 17 catches in the last two games.
While all of these statistics are clear reasons to avoid the Packers, their are several key aspects to point on here. Green Bay hasn’t dropped four in a row since Rodgers became the team’s starter in 2008. In his last 10 games against the Vikings, Rodgers has thrown for 26 touchdowns versus three interceptions. To add frosting to the cake, their’s simply no way the Vikings go 9-1 ATS as everyone would bet on them and Vegas would lose money. I predicted the same thing last week by taking Texans +10 over the Bengals, not only did they cover, they won! This is why it’s essential to follow ATS trends closely. If a team has covered it’s last 3 games, they’re highly unlikely to make it a fourth straight cover. Combine that with the fact that they’re playing a team on an ATS losing trend only make the pick even more juicier.