Two ways to bet on the Super Bowl – 2015 Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
The Super Bowl is still a week away but the betting the odds are already out.
And because it’s the most popular and most televised betting event in the country, the Super Bowl makes it a difficult place to be looking for sports betting value. Still, bettors can find value, they just need to look harder for it.
With that, here are a couple of the best places for football handicappers to look for value on the big game.
First, handicappers need to key in on if the public is over enthusiastically backing one team.
While in one way it’s good for the odd makers to have one team heavily favored for the Super Bowl, they also stand to lose a lot of money if the favorite doesn’t show up on Super Sunday. That means the books are the most vulnerable if bettors overwhelmingly put tons of money on the team that covers the spread.
Because books are wise to this scenario and hate to lose loads of money, they make sure they protect themselves by doing everything they can to balance the betting action from the start.
For example, if one team is way more popular than the other, the sportsbooks will likely start the spread higher than they might normally, which means that they will move the line aggressively if action continues to be one-sided.
For handicappers this is a good way to make money, as most novice betters will probably ignore any line movement, going with the fav just because. Still, bettors need to beware, as this doesn’t necessarily mean the underdog can win, nor does it indicate the line is too high for the favorite to cover.
Bettors need to weigh the odds, compare a team’s ability and make good decisions here.
Next, Super Bowl bettors need to look at the available prop bets.
There are a huge number of prop bets offered on the Super Bowl, but not all are good bets. Some are just sucker bets, like betting on the outcome of the coin toss. The money here, if won, is insignificant.
Other bets like the length of the national anthem or which movie star or athlete’s wife will be featured first during the game, might be fun, but again are bets of chance and cannot be supported by stats.
Bettors need to stick with the prop bets that can be easily analyzed on facts, and their outcome predicted on just a few solid factors.
An example would be that if one team is going to have a significant advantage in the running game or passing game , which would result in being able to bet the under or over on the number of passes a quarterback will throw, or the number of carries or yards a running back might roll up.
Another good way to bet might be to bet on the team that scores the most 4th quarter points. Betting on the team that can run the ball, as it will likely result in that team scoring a lot of points in the fourth quarter because the grind of the running game, tiring out the opposition’s defense.
Finally, not every Super Bowl prop bet will likely be worth wagering, so handicappers need to be smart and take their time picking out the good ones, padding their bankrolls and adding more fun to Super Bowl Sunday.