Using Teasers and advanced betting strategies for betting on two NFL teams is a strategy that we will explain in detail below. Learn more on how we can help you get ahead with our advanced sports betting strategies and betting tips.
The two-team point teaser is undoubtedly a popular betting strategy favored by both the beginners and experienced bettors. The strategy, which is used extensively in pro football involves moving the line with six points in the bettor’s favor for both teams. This means that the bettor can only win in the event that both teams cover new spreads.
Whenever there is a pair of 10-point favorites, these can be moved down to -4 while covering the two teams. As such, both teams must register wins by at least five points for the bettor to win. Although the strategy sounds simple, it can easily attract bettors into making the wrong moves. This explains why the strategy is known as teasers. Sweeping two plays is a difficult proposition even when it involves six bonus points per game. The majority of bettors have discovered this reality the hard way.
The six points are barely in a position to turn the betting strategy into a profitable approach. Betting psychology explains the tendency to make bad moves when dealing with teasers. The majority of casual bettors prefer placing their bets on favorites for a simple reason. They are comfortable trusting the superior team. In addition, they feel at ease putting favorites in teasers. As a result, the underdogs get the wrong end of the 10-point favorite stick.
On the other hand, the superior teams do not register big margin wins as often as some bettors think. It comes as no surprise VSiN’s oddsmaking experts state that the lines are generally staked against the bettors. Sportsbooks must counteract the potential for a one-sided action.
When betting two NFL teasers, the true line of a 10-point favorite is probably -9 or -9.5. The point spread was changed to reflect a premium charge for betting the favorite. This is appropriate for teasers because bettors are not obtaining six points with the adjustment. Instead, they obtain 5 or 5.5 (even less sometimes). The majority of casual bettors typically hope that the big team wins the match straight up.
This reality shows that many people cherish the opportunity to take favorites around -6 and proceed to shift them downwards in order to pick them. The simplistic view revolves around the notion that superior teams find it easy to win their games. However, in the cutthroat world of NFL, underdogs spring spectacular upsets more often than what most people can imagine. The number of upsets in the aforementioned range is compelling enough to sweep both entries in a teaser.
The situation is more likely to prove disastrous for anyone who prefers betting a lot of action and incorporating a particular superior team in the multiple two-team teasers. At the end of the day, all the separate bets lose in the event that a minnow causes an upset. Meanwhile, the range has been shown to attract price inflation. At true odds, bettors can expect a 6-point favorite to turn into a 5.5, which translates to below par value with the line adjustment.
The success rate for teasers
It has been reported that most casual bettors adopt two losing approaches. They usually make an effort to bring down the favorites with the aim to feel safer. In addition, they prefer asking favorites that are slightly below a TD in an attempt to win straight up. This is based on the notion that big teams are supposed to provide the desired results. Oftentimes, beginners are overly excited about their prospects with the teasers. They go for a list of favorites by avoiding laying 10 points for a particular team and spreading the bet.
A recent study conducted by Quant has shown that teasers represent a losing bet on NFL totals and college football sides or totals. Additionally, the approach is risky even in relation to college or pro basketball. However, there are few exceptions when betting on some NFL teams. Analysts discovered that it is possible to put the odds in one’s favor in the tight window, which bettors are allowed to cover both three and seven in a single swoop. The winning rate is significantly high for bettor who opt for teasers.
The findings were revealed as part of the study, which was conducted using both computers and manual methods. Some of the permutations analyzed and verified by Quant include taking favorites -7.5 down to -1.5. The same applies to -8 down to -2 as well as -8.5 down to -2.5.
Alternatively, individuals may take underdogs at +1.5 up to +7.5 or +2 to +8 or +2.5 to +8.5. By opting to sticking to teams that meet these parameters and going for all the possible pairs created by these permutations, it becomes more realistic to tilt the odds in one’s favor. Sharps have successfully relied on this basic strategy for many years.
A parameter, such as minus 7 to minus 1 is not a viable option because many matches land on seven. As a result, pushes lose and it is recommended that bettors refer to applicable rules. When it comes to minus 9 to minus 3, a significant number of matches land at three. This necessitates sweeping both parts of the teaser to achieve a positive outcome.
In the NFL, three and seven are usually the final result. For this reason, one needs to consider permutations that place both within the tight adjustment window. In a typical week, bettors may have to go for the following permutations. New England -8.5 to -2.5, Detroit +1.5 to +7.5, Oakland +1.5 or 2 to +7.5 or 8, Buffalo -8.5 to -2.5 and Pittsburgh minus 8.5 to minus 2.5.
As for New England, a significant number of outlets have been standing at minus nine, which is not eligible. The permutations for Buffalo have been on the rise while many outlets are placing Pittsburgh at minus nine.
Placing a lot of stock in teasers in the first week is fraught with issues. The problems are triggered by the soft market prices at the early stages of the season. In the first week, many people are faced with tough questions when it comes to predictions. For instance, there will be asking whether Kansas City can outshine New England. They also consider the fortunes of underdogs like Browns and Jets.
Impact of teasers on line moves
It is ironic that in the early stages of the season, totals bettors and confident teams compromise soft lines. The situation becomes trickier as the season progresses as the lines conform to the reality. Teasers, on the other hand, take advantage of the increased value of taking six points. When the lines are tighter, teasers find value by crossing the three and seven.
During the weekends when sharp betting is at its peak, sharps become more aggressive. They push the envelope by pairing the options and opting for big bets.
Other bettors may ponder about the idea of taking Pittsburgh and New England at minus 2.5. At the same time, they are unsure about underdogs like Oakland and Detroit. Underdogs can be moved into the +1.5 to +2.5 range midway or later through the season, which is a viable option.
The strategy enables bettors to go against vulnerable favorites that cannot guarantee a field goal or more. It is viable because bettors attack the teams with line inflation. The true odds are most likely to stand at 6.5 to 7 points when the numbers are moved on underdogs. Whenever a solid line of minus 2.5 is widely available in pro football, this means sharps have not quickly taken the match to minus three.
Oddsmaking experts say fading a favorite that is not respected and an underdog that enjoys a lot of respect by taking the two at +8.5 is a good move. This allows individuals to leverage the power of the three and seven. Bettors can take advantage of additional parameters apart from two-team teasers that entail six points. It is possible to move seven and achieve the desired outcome. In the past, three-team 10-point teasers were popular with bettors.
Advanced methodologies have the capacity to introduce more options. However, taking a team based on a normal price range appears more beneficial when compared to using it in a teaser. Experts are discussing the impact of teasers on line moves more frequently, particularly when looking at teams like Pittsburgh, Buffalo and New England. Some of the people covering the topic more extensively include Vinny Magliulo, Chris Andrews and Jimmy Vaccaro.
It comes as no surprise that sportsbooks are already taking measures to counteract the exposure to the risk they face. For instance, when a massive sharp money result happens in at Kansas City at +9. In such cases, the sportsbooks will have to decide whether to move the line down to 8.5 or not. Doing so can attract multitude of teaser plays that lead off with a team like New England at minus 2.5.
It is important to take note of the impact heaped on the market by teasers. This applies to everyone, including those who do not bet teasers.