Wagering on injured starting pitchers
As the MLB season rolls on, it’s almost certain that some starting pitchers will experience some sort of injury that will force them to miss a single start, or maybe more.
For baseball bettors, these injuries can wreak havoc on a handicappers wagering practice, as injuries cause ripples that can be felt throughout an entire MLB roster for extended periods of time — or not. That’s why it is extremely important for serious handicappers to learn to determine how much of an impact there will be on a team when an injury occurs to its starting pitcher.
With that, here are a few factors for baseball handicappers to consider when trying.
First, it’s important for a handicapper to identify if there is a suitable replacement for an injured starter. If a team has someone that it can pull from the bullpen or call up from the farm, it will lessen the impact, and may not even disrupt the chemistry of the rotation all that much. However, if a team is forced to scramble to find a suitable stand in, it could cause a much bigger issue.
Second, handicappers need to asses of the injury is serious, or if it is a short term injury, or perhaps even a nagging injury that would allow a player to play on. If he cannot, another starter could be forced to start earlier in the rotation, creating stress and the need to pitch on short rest. And while some pitchers can come up or out of the bullpen to start on a moment’s notice, or just a day or two after his last appearance, others don’t handle the stress of short rest well.
Next, handicappers need to evaluate how good the starter was to begin with? Is he the team’s ace or star standout, or is he just middling? And how does the public perceive a starting pitcher’s status?
If the injured starter is a strong hurler, then there might be a big drop off between the starter and his replacement. If the starter isn’t strong, then the change won’t likely carry a major impact. The public, however, is likely to overreact with a hurt starting pitcher no matter what, and because they rarely really look at who the replacement is and how good he is, it can lead to opportunities for serious baseball bettors.
Finally, how much time has a team had to deal with an injury to its starter, and has that team dealt with the same situation in the past?
A team’s worst nightmare is dealing with an injury that just occurred, whereas more time will allow it to find a much better solution, which lessens the impact of missing even its ace starter.
Also, if a team has been hit hard by the injury bug in the past, they are more likely to respond positively to the situation and can rely on their experience to keep them in the winning column. Meanwhile, other teams are less experienced, so the injury can have a more weighty effect.