Wagering on NFL teams playing lower than their potential
Winning in the NFL is not easy, but every season a few teams storm out of the starting gate on their way to a 3-0 or better start. And until the last remaining unbeaten team finally falls, those remaining unbeaten teams create a real challenge for NFL handicappers.
To help bettors who are tempted to wager on these teams, we have assembled a few factors that should first be considered.
First and foremost, handicappers need keep in mind that the betting public’s enthusiasm for teams that are riding an unbeaten streak grows rapidly. Often times created by excess hype by the media, which helps fuel the fervor, sucking in the public and drawing them into the hype in large numbers. Especially, if an unbeaten team is a fan favorite, or are winning with an explosive offense that is putting up a ton of points, or has produced a string of exciting comebacks.
This is going to often result in heavy public betting. Oddmakers know this and as a result will increase the spreads to take advantage of the public’s bias. That means that value could be hard to find, unless there is value on the underdog.
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But that generates its own challenges when a unbeaten team is less than perfect against the spread.
It stands to reason that if a team is not only winning, but consistently covers the spread, handicappers know that team is good. But what if a team is not covering the points spread? Than it is much tougher for handicappers to really know if a team is as good as they appear.
That’s because it hard to judge a team that may be overachieving.
Without a loss to compare to, it’s difficult to know a team’s weaknesses, and how vulnerable they might be against a particular opponent, and their strengths and schemes.
That leaved only way for NFL handicapper to be sure when betting on an unbeaten team. To look at who they have played.
The public and media will naturally assume any unbeaten team is good without ever examining who it has beaten. Savvy handicappers however, will look deeper at a team’s past competition and determine if they are the real deal or benefactors of a weak schedule.
A team is far less attractive if it as beaten up on four straight weak teams in a row, compared to beating four likely playoff teams.
Finally, NFL handicappers need stick to the stats. It’s the only thing that makes sense, is relevant and is the most important piece to picking winners.
Even if a team is unbeaten, bettors should never deviate from their normal betting preparations.
And while it’s easy to believe that an unbeaten football team is far more impressive than they really are, betting on that alone will only shrink a NFL handicappers betting bankroll.