Betting on turnover differential in Football
One of the most overlooked and underrated NFL football statistics that can provide valuable insight to football handicappers, is a NFL team’s turnover differential.
This statistic represents the difference between the number of times a team turns the ball over, and the number of times it recovers a turnover from its opponents. When used appropriately, it can be a pertinent tool for NFL handicappers.
For starters it’s a well known fact that a football team that protects the ball, is going to find themselves winning more games than one that is sloppy with the football. However, finding a way to interpret turnover differential statistics and turn that knowledge into profits is not as easy. That’s because the difference between a good turnover team and a bad one isn’t always that much, and turnovers aren’t easy to predict.
However, this information can still definitely be used by handicappers in their pursuit of profit.
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It’s easy for handicappers to get caught up in a NFL team’s turnover differential stats before they are truly confident that they are playing at their full potential. This usually happens early on in the season when there is not a significant enough sample size established that clearly indicates the turnover difference between two teams.
A turnover defense of +3 and -3 is really on six. Which is not huge difference over three or four games.
So, handicappers must be enduring, also forgetting and refusing to assume that teams that were turnover powerhouses the prior season, will automatically carry that into their present campaign. That’s because history illustrates that there are not many teams that have led the NFL in turnover differential two years in a row.
Nevertheless, once a season gets underway, it won’t be long before certain teams start to set up to be as good turnover teams, possessing an offense that protects the ball, combined with a defense that can force fumbles and drag down errant passes.
But in order to wager effectively on these teams, bettors need to not only think about how two teams playing each other have performed over the season when it comes to turnovers, but also how the current game is likely to evolve in regards to turnovers.
Lastly, understanding a team’s turnover differential can really help NFL handicappers wagering on the spread.
If a football team with a solid defense that generates a lot of turnovers is playing against a sloppy offense, it will probably force the sloppy team to take more than normal risks, especially if it falls behind early.
Thus allowing the more defensive side to win the turnover battle, putting them in good position to cover a larger points spread.