NFL Picks Against the Spread

It should be no surprise that the National Football League is the most popular betting sport in the United States because of its nonstop action and drama. Football is also one of the few sports where even the biggest underdog has a chance to win on gameday, which can make betting against the spread attractive. When it comes time to put your money down, how can you make sure you’re making smart NFL picks against the spread?

You don’t need to be a mathematical wizard to get NFL expert picks against the spread – that’s the work of Sports Information Traders’ experts each week. But if you are new to spread bets, there are some things you need to understand before getting in on the action. Here’s a quick guide to making good picks each week.

Our 2022-2023 NFL Season will deliver each game preview with a betting prediction free of charge. We have developed a betting algorithm for our readers that will deliver a play from the computer generated model to help avoid human error and bias for our readers and subscribers.

Factors Involved in NFL Spread Betting

Points spreads add another dimension to the betting odds presented each week. Simply put, a spread evens out the odds between two teams, giving bettors a reason to root for the longshot team. In addition to having negative odds, the team predicted to be the winner will also have negative points in the spread.

There are several factors that every bettor should consider before making NFL picks against the spread. First, consider the team’s key statistics, including passing efficiency and turnovers. If the underdog team’s starting quarterback has a high completion rate and strong touchdown-to-turnover ratio, there’s a strong chance they can stay competitive throughout the game and stay within the spread.

Defensive and special teams statistics can also guide you on whether or not you should be making NFL picks against the spread this week. Strong defenses that don’t allow scoring can keep a game close. If the lesser team has a suffocating defensive side, that can stifle points scoring and keep the game within the spread. On the other side, if the favorite team has a high number of punts on fourth down each week, they may have trouble scoring and ultimately overcoming the spread.

Let’s consider all of this in an example:


Teams Points Spread Odds
Tampa Bay -11 (-110) -500
Miami +11 (-110) +380

Using the American Odds system, we know that Tampa Bay is heavily favored to beat Miami in this game. With the points spread, we also see that Tampa is also expected to win by at least 11 points. We also note that points spread betting is at near even odds with a small vig (commission fee) built in for the sportsbook.

Even though Tampa Bay may have one of the most exciting offensive attacks in sports today, it’s important to look at how Miami plays week-to-week. If their defense doesn’t allow many yards-per-play or their quarterback plays at a high level, it may signal that they could be one of the best NFL picks against the spread.

After your research, let’s say you bet $110 on Miami. If Tampa wins by a score of 14-10, you would win $100 betting against the spread because Tampa only won by three points instead of the predicted 11-point spread. But If Tampa wins by a score of 24-10, you would lose because they “covered” the spread, or won by a margin larger than the spread.

Best NFL Picks Against the Spread

Making smart NFL picks against the spread requires a lot of attention to detail, requiring you to keep up to date on NFL sports betting news every day. Any changes to the starting lineup can change the points spread before the start of the game, ultimately affecting your odds.

When it comes to making the best NFL picks against the spread, there’s nothing better than expertise. With a combined total of over 60 years, our experts have deep insights on each game to give you the top opportunities every week. When you get a Sports Information Traders package, we provide you with picks based on deep analysis of each team and proprietary models to give you the best chance. Whether you are betting against the spread or looking for hidden opportunities in the sportsbook each week, Jon Price and his team can help you get the inside line towards success.

Get the Best NFL Game Insights from Sports Information Traders

You can’t afford to place wagers without the insight of the sports betting authority. Get NFL expert picks against the spread each week from Sports Information Traders, and increase your odds of winning every time. Sign up for a package today, or contact us today to get a consultation from our specialists.



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