Below is a breakdown for those betting on games today October 6, 2019 which is the 5th week of the NFL and one of the most exciting as it where sharp bettors turn the corner and break away from those who followed systems that turned out to not compile enough data for the first 4 weeks.
Today marks the beginning of the second quarter of the NFL regular season. Through four games, the biggest betting storyline has been the incredible performance of underdogs. They’ve gone 39-24 ATS (61.9%) thus far. A $100 bettor taking each one since opening night would be up roughly $1,200.
Generally speaking, underdogs have much more value than favorites because the public is biased toward favorites. The books know this and will shade lines toward the favorites, forcing casual bettors to take an overpriced number and, in turn, handing out artificially inflated lines to savvy contrarian wiseguys.
However, if we dig a little deeper into the great underdog start this season, we notice a huge difference between home dogs and road dogs. Home dogs have gone 10-12 ATS (45.5%). On the other hand, road dogs have gone 29-12 ATS (70.7%). This heightened road edge is due partially to the fact that the public overvalues home field advantage.
Here are your road dogs for today
Colts +11 at Chiefs
Packers +3.5 at Dallas
Broncos +5.5 at Chargers
Jets +14 at Eagles
Cardinals +3 at Bengals
Bucs +3 at Saints
Bills +3 at Titans
Jags +3 at Panthers
Falcons +4 at Texans
Now let’s check out four games receiving heavy smart money, along with a handful of other sharp action plays.
1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
The Ravens have been a tale of two teams through four games. Baltimore started out 2-0 in impressive fashion but has since dropped two straight. On the flip side, Pittsburgh began the season 0-3 and finally secured their first victory last Monday night, beating Cincinnati 27-3 as 3.5-point favorites. The public doesn’t know which way to go with this AFC North spread but professional bettors have make a clear decision.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 4-point road favorite. Bets are split down the middle but we’ve seen this line fall to 3.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this move was caused by wiseguys with an edge hitting Pittsburgh plus the points. Divisional dogs are a smart bet historically as the familiarity of playing twice a year levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points (divisional dogs are 13-8, 62% this season). The total opened at 42.5 and has been bet up to 44.5 despite heavy public betting on the under. This signals an over play for the sharps.
1 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals (0-3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-4)
Casual bettors see two win less teams going head-to-head and want nothing to do with this game. But sharps could care less how popular or attractive a matchup is. If they see value, like they do here, they get down without hesitation. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 4-point home favorite. With oddsmakers typically awarding 3-points for home field advantage, this means the teams are evenly matched and the game would be roughly a pick’em on a neutral field.
Roughly seven-out-often bets are grabbing the points with Arizona. However, this isn’t a heavy “public” play because, compared to other games today, it’s very low-bet. This means the 70% is more likely coming from sharps with an edge than Average Joes. This heavy one-sided action on the Cardinals has dropped the line down to 3. Since 2003, when two win less teams face each other the road dog has gone 39-22 ATS (63.9%) according to Bet Labs Sports. The total opened at 48 and has been bet down to 47, signaling under liability. John Hussey is the lead ref. Since 2003, the under has cashed at a 60.9% clip with Hussey as the head official. We’re also seeing 7-10 MPH winds at Paul Brown Stadium.
1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)
Both teams are coming off impressive Week 4 wins. The Bucs upset the Rams 55-40 as 9-point road dogs while the Saints took down the Cowboys 12-10 as 2.5-point home dogs. New Orleans opened as a 4.5-point home favorite for this NFC South showdown. The public loves betting the Saints at the Superdome, even with Teddy Bridgewater starting in place of Drew Brees. Roughly 60% of bets are laying the points, yet we’ve seen this line tumble down to 3. This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement with pros getting down on the Bucs. Tampa is a road divisional dog, a profitable spot historically.
Wiseguys have also targeted the under. The total opened at 47.5. Bets are even but the line has fallen to 45.5. When a total falls at least a point in a divisional game the under has won 56% of the time since 2003. Also, Brad Allen is the head official. The under has cashed at a 57% clip with Allen as the lead ref since 2003.
4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
This late afternoon showdown between two of the NFL’s best and most popular teams will end up being one of the most heavily bet games of the day. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season after starting 3-0. Green Bay fell 34-27 to Philadelphia last Thursday night as 3.5-point home favorites. Dallas lost to the Saints 12-10 on Sunday Night Football as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Dallas listed as a short 3.5-point home favorite. Bets are roughly even yet we’ve seen the line dip to 3 during the week before settling back at 3.5. It’s never touched 4. This signals liability on the road dog. The Packers enjoy three extra days of rest and game prep having playing last Thursday. Ron Torbert is the lead ref. Since 2003, he’s been one of the worst home refs as home teams have covered just 39.1% of the time. The total hasn’t budged off of 47. Two big injuries here: star receiver Davante Adams is out for the Packers and Pro Bowl offensive tackle Tyron Smith is out for the Cowboys.
More Sharp Action
Panthers -3 to -3.5 vs Jaguars
Vikings-Giants under 44.5 to 43.5
Patriots-Redskins under 45.5 to 42
Falcons-Texans over 49 to 50
Bills-Titans over 38.5 to 39.5
Broncos +6.5 to +5.5 at Chargers
Information courtesy of the writers of VSIN in Las Vegas.