Mr. Price is the lead sports picker and handicapper for Sports Information Traders. A service that provides reputable sports betting advice on all of the major betting sports from around the world.
Gauging weather when betting on the NFL
One of the biggest anomalies in betting on the NFL is what impact weather will have on a particular game.
It’s fair to say that weather plays a bigger role in later season games and is one reason why totals and point spreads will move all the way up to kick off in the months of November and December.
Wind, snow, torrential rain and sub zero temperatures all have an effect on even the best NFL teams.
That’s why winter NFL handicappers need to be aware of the weather and the impact it can have on the outcome of NFL games.
So, to help bettors out, we’ve put together some important factors to keep in mind when considering the weather in NFL handicapping.
First, a majority of today’s NFL teams like to air out the ball, and it’s only makes sense that a team’s passing game is affected by adverse weather more than the ground game. Not only is the ball harder to catch in cold weather, it’s also more difficult to throw.
So, avoid teams with strong passing games and go with teams that use a solid rushing attack.
And don’t forget to consider the wind. Wind is an under-appreciated factor and can have a huge impact on a team’s ability not only to pass, but to kick that game-winning field goal in the final seconds. It could be the difference in a three-point or spread.
Second, take a look the teams and see where they are from, and check their December home game wins and losses.
Often times teams like Buffalo, Chicago, Green Bay, New England and Pittsburgh do much better than teams like Florida, San Diego or San Francisco when the weather is cold.
Gamblers should also consider checking out is if the weather involves late-season road games by non-cold weather, non-playoff teams. These teams typically do poorly in adverse conditions. Especially if they play their home games in a dome.
Speaking of domes, smart bettors need to spot the late season dome games, where and snow and wind are rarely a big worry. Sometimes because they are overlooked there are good bargains.
Finally bettors should not just jump on the under because they see bad weather. The sportsbooks know that and set the totals accordingly. If bettors are patient, they will probably discover that more games went over the total even though there was bad weather forecasted.
The key is not to move too fast to place a wager based on some assumptions, only to ind that those assumptions changed at game time. Weather is not a precise science and a snowy forecast could turn to rain or cloudy by kick off.
And while weather can have an impact on an NFL game’s outcome, bettors still treat each game on an individual basis.
By being aware of cold-weather tendencies, the informed bettor does have a worthwhile advantage.