Mistakes to avoid when betting on the NFL
And while the NFL is the most popular most popular sport to bet on in America, it’s really one of the most difficult to make money on.
So why do people still continue to wager on Sunday’s from August to January? Simple. They love their football.
Now we don’t want to say that football lovers can’t turn their passion into to profits, but if they want to turn in winning wagers week after week, then they have to be very sure to avoid every possible mistake they can.
With that, here are a few common mistakes that NFL bettors make that usually result in big losses.
First of all, handicappers need to keep in mind that the quality and availability of stats and information available on the NFL gives oddsmakers a lot of information for setting their lines. And because of this, they have become very good, making value very hard to find.
The general betting public also has access to this stream of endless information, including every form of media, from television and radio, to social media and national sports information web sites. However, with all of this exposure comes a lot of hype and a slew of misinformation as well.
And while the media will often go into raptures over NFL players that aren’t really playing well, or tout a team as being unbeatable, when it really just hasn’t played the toughest part of its schedule, it pays for handicappers to block out all the hype, and only act on information that they have verified to be true.
Next, a common mistake that goes hand in hand when a handicapper allows media hype to distort his or hers decision, is getting caught up in a team’s flashy offense, forgetting about defense all together.
In the NFL, offense is what puts butts in seats, and draws a huge weekly television audience. And to be honest, I mean what football fan doesn’t want to see all of that highlight reel footage of big passes, incredible runs and acrobatic receptions.
The truth is, though, if a handicapper allows himself of herself to get caught betting games based on a team’s offense only. Then they are falling into the same trap that a lot of casual bettors do. Don’t ignore the defense, it’s a costly mistake if you do.
Another common mistake when betting on the NFL, is the tendency for even the most experienced handicappers to overlook, or put too much emphasis on player injuries.
The latter tending to be the most common of the general betting public, which always overreacts to injuries occurring to high profile players. With that, it is almost a given that if a big name player – especially quarterback – is sidelined with an injury, the public will panic and the line will be affected.
Handicappers need not to be alarmed tough, thinking through each injury situation and asking if the injured player will impact that game as much as perceived. Maybe his replacement is more than capable of stepping in to fill the void.
Conversely, if a player who is not looked at as importantly by the public goes down — like a an All-Pro center or safety — it may present value, as that player may be more critical to the success of his team, but doesn’t get the attention. In this case, the betting public won’t have a firm grasp on the importance of the injury, but smart NFL bettors will.
Finally, NFL handicappers need to avoid believing in momentum. Teams don’t win games because they are “on a roll.” They win games because they are good. In the NFL there are so many factors that go into winning or losing games, that momentum just isn’t a defining factor.