Betting Tips for Wagering on the underdog
No matter what sport a handicapper is betting on, heavy underdogs, although risky at times, can offer potentially large payouts. We help Football, Baseball, and College Sports Bettors to get that extra edge to beat out the bookmakers and make that extra income that is so desired with our analytical betting tips.
And while sometimes, there are good reasons not to back a heavy underdog in a certain situation, those betting on these dogs need to understand a few important factors to ensure they are not overlooking some value and leaving serious profit potential on the table.
First, handicappers need to make sure they understand that a consistent +200 underdog only has to win one-third of the time for your to break even, and at +300 the required winning rate is just 25 percent. That means regular bettors need to be patient, and make sure that when there is a heavy underdog, there are a few factors to be considered before laying down their bet, keeping in mind the following situations where a heavy underdogs can be worth a closer look. The is common in College Football as there are large vigorish distortions that should be examined.
First, handicappers need to sniff out the games that have over-hyped favorites, especially the ones that contain a bigger deficit between them and the underdog when it comes to the spread or moneyline. The bigger the gap the better the value.
Often time the betting public will over buy into a big name team regardless of how it’s playing, while not giving the other team nearly enough credit. When this happens, the sportsbooks will adjust the odds accordingly to make the favorite less attractive to minimize their risk. This is when smart handicappers need to strike.
That’s because the odds are mainly based on what the public perception of a game is projected to be. And because every experienced sports handicapper knows that the public relies more on opinion and perception rather that real performance and careful analysis of available data. This in turn means that it’s possible that the public won’t take notice of a matchup that is actually quite favorable for the underdog.
Take for example an MLB underdog that is taking on a much better team, but is stacked with left-handed pitchers, while the favorite has been struggling hitting left handed pitchers. This could be a real value if a handicapper took notice and bet on the underdog here.
Maybe a football favorite has been winning streak, but playing poor defense. Maybe they have just played weaker offensives or just gotten lucky. If up against an underdog that has been playing well, but losing high-scoring affairs, their winning streak could be in peril. Making the underdog an attractive play for bettors.
That situation can set up the final situation bettors need to pay attention to when considering placing their money on the underdog.
The differences in a team’s motivation.
Often times sports teams who are the heavy favorite, don’t necessarily play up to their full potential especially against an heavy underdog. They are sometimes taken by sunrise, as are the bettors who backed them.
Meanwhile, heavy underdogs who may have a lot to prove, and can be especially motivated because they are playing against a good team.
If that is against a playoff-bound team that has no real incentive to win the game, while keeping its starters healthy for the playoffs, then the underdog could have a better than expected chance of winning. All of that could mean that their line could be packed with value.