Betting tips for midseason QB changes
It nearing that time of the year again, when during the NFL season, teams begin to make quarterback changes. Sometimes because of injuries and other times because of a need to replace an underperforming starter.
For whatever reason, midseason quarterback changes are a big challenge for football handicappers trying to figure out how a team will respond to a QB change.
With that, here are a few things NFL handicappers need to ponder when wagering on a NFL team that has recently made a QB switch.
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First, is trying to figure out the real reason why a change has been made. Maybe it’s an injury, lack of motivation or utter failure to perform. Whatever the reason, it’s critical for bettors to understand how teammates will respond to the change.
Was the change sudden, or did players anticipate the change? This can tell handicappers if they were getting ready, or if they will have to adjust on the fly, which is difficult for even the best NFL teams.
Next, NFL handicappers need to evaluate the tools the new QB will have at his disposal.
A new starting quarterback’s job is much easier if he has a good offensive line. Experience along the o-line will give a good indication of whether or not a new QB will have time to adjust without worrying about getting crushed by defenses. A QB that spends a lot of time scrambling from the pocket under the opposition’s relentless passing attack will be less likely to focus on finding his receivers. Which will likely result in little success.
That means a good rushing attack could alleviate some of those stresses. So, spotting a team that has gone through a QB change but has proven itself to be able to move the ball on the ground, might be a safer bet. However, if a team’s previous quarterback struggled because of a poor o-line or running game, it’s likely the new starter will face the same problems. So, bettors should stay away.
Another thing to analyze is the coaching staff’s history with QB changes.
Some coaches are good at mixing in a new starting quarterback, while others have failed miserably. Spotting a coach that has supported his backups in the past, paints a clearer picture of a coach that has patience and increases the chances of success for new QB’s now matter the circumstance.
Handicappers should also look at a team’s offensive coordinator and quarterback coach in these instances, as they too will have an influence on a new starting QB.
Finally, how much time has a new quarterback had to prepare, and how is the public responding to the team’s change?
If a QB has not played in a while, he has very little familiarity with a team’s schemes. However, if he has seen some spot game duty, or is coming in following a bye week, he may be more prepared. Still, a transition as such in the NFL, is always difficult.
Nevertheless, the value for NFL handicappers here can be huge, as the betting public will likely totally desert a team that has gone through a recent QB change.
The public will likely overreact, which will have a big impact on how the lines are set for the teams.
But if smart handicappers do their homework, they could use the information the glean to make winning NFL picks against the spread.